Arab Spring: Unfinished business or tragic legacy?

The uprisings of the Arab Spring seemed to represent a dramatic turning point in history, the sudden collapse of regimes and political systems few expected to be so fragile. But the years since showed how much of the prevailing order endured, the Post’s Ishaan Tharoor observes.

“It appeared that decades happened in a few weeks in Tunisia and Egypt, and later in other countries when the tip of the ancient tyrannical pyramid was blown away,” wrote Hisham Melhem, a veteran analyst of Middle East politics. “[Former Tunisian leader Zine el-Abidine] Ben Ali, Mubarak, and others have gone, but the pyramid — more broadly the political, economic, and security structure and the cultural superstructures that supported these modern-day pharaohs and allowed them to torment their societies — is still intact.”

Democracy isn’t like instant coffee. It needs an enabling environment and a hospitable culture to flourish and grow, argues Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, the former director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Without a robust and vibrant civil society — labor unions, political parties, associations and independent media — it was impossible to agree on a transitional road map following the swift fall of Arab dictators. The institutions needed to enable true social cohesion were simply not there, he writes for Project Syndicate. 

The Arab world has more democratic headroom than many of us give it credit for, according to Tarek Masoud, Professor of International Relations at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. But how might the Arab world deliver on that democratic potential? he asks in the NED’s Journal of Democracy:

As a new U.S. administration prepares to take office, we might be tempted to call for renewed pressure on autocrats to respect human rights and even to allow political competition. But if democracy is to come to the Arab world, it will not be because autocrats were hectored into granting it. It will be because democracy won the argument. And for that to happen, ordinary Arabs will need evidence that it can deliver something other than chaos and discord.

The 2011 uprisings have had three main consequences: fear of state collapse, increased social polarization and the increasing importance of socio-economic demands.  Any strategy for political change must address these factors in order to be successful, writes Dr Georges Fahmi, Associate Fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program:

• Restoring state institutions in countries where such institutions have either collapsed or have become ineffective, and protecting the state from collapse in other cases, are now important factors that could either hinder or strengthen any project for political change…..
• Addressing social polarization and strengthening citizen trust is important for mobilization. During the first wave of the Arab Spring in 2011, societies were less polarized – politically, religiously and ethnically – than they are today…..Religious and ethnic tensions have also risen in the region since 2011, which plays into the hands of ruling regimes who benefit from social divisions. …
• Any political project for change will need to address ongoing socio-economic grievances. In 2011, protesters made a clear link between political change and addressing socio-economic issues, believing that once authoritarian regimes were brought down, such problems would vanish. This belief no longer exists….RTWT

Despite increased aspirations and political openness after the protests, deep changes to economic governance and outcomes failed to materialize. Why? the World Bank asks (above). Fixing the social contract between citizens and government and creating 300 million more private-sector led jobs are still needed, argues World Bank MENA Vice-President Ferid Belhaj. 

In recent years, new uprisings in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq toppled governments and triggered processes toward political reform whose outcomes are far from certain, especially given that the the root causes of simmering discontent — massive youth unemployment, stagnating economies, endemic corruption and feckless political elites – remain, the Post’s Tharoor adds.