How Sudan’s fragile transition derailed

The outbreak of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April has derailed Sudan’s fragile transition towards civilian rule, with deep implications for the country’s future governance trajectory and potentially damaging regional ramifications, Chatham House reports: 

The current devastation follows more than three years where the leaders of SAF and RSF sought to stifle Sudan’s transition towards civilian rule – with a military coup in 2021, and recent escalating tensions between the two effectively blocking political efforts aimed at restoring a robust civilian government…..  Competing economic interests, fluid national and sub-national military alliances, and rapidly increasing refugee flows – with over 150,000 people having already fled Sudan – heighten prospects for protracted instability and regional spill-over.

This panel discussion explores perspectives on the war and discusses scenarios for its evolution and resolution, including the role of Sudan’s civilian and political class, the implications of regional interests, and the prospects for mediation efforts to reach a permanent ceasefire and return Sudan to the path towards civilian rule.

This event is part of a Chatham House Africa programme project on supporting Sudan’s civilian-led democratic transition, supported by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED).