Ethiopia’s political turmoil: What happens next

This week Ethiopia’s government entered the controversial sixth year of its five-year mandate. But the administration of Abiy Ahmed isn’t going anywhere… not even after a particularly violent summer, notes Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy, and GZERO Media. Covid-19 has produced plenty of political drama these last few months, but Ethiopia has experienced more than most—here’s why, he writes for TIME:

Ethiopian politics operates in a system of “ethnic federalism”—while there is a central government to this federation, its constituent parts are carved out along ethnic lines and jockeyed over by parties promising the best deal for the ethnicities within them (of which there are dozens throughout a country of 112 million). …. Enter current prime minister Abiy Ahmed, who ascended to power in 2018 on a wave of activism spearheaded by his own Oromo—Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, accounting for roughly a third of the population—seeking to finally have one of their own hold the premiership after years of feeling marginalized.

But while ethnic federalism might have helped propel Abiy to the premiership, it was also holding the country back… at least from Abiy’s perspective, Bremmer adds.

The country is in risk of taking an authoritarian turn, some observers suggest.

In the year since Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the country has become increasingly beset by political unrest, dampening some of the lofty hopes expressed by his supporters and the prize committee in Oslo, The Post reports:

Abiy was appointed to his position in 2018 and quickly set out a reform agenda that included increased civil liberties, the release of political prisoners, business deregulation and a pledge to hold Ethiopia’s first free, multiparty elections. He also forged a peace deal with neighboring Eritrea after decades of often bloody hostilities — the main basis for his Nobel. A set of crises has instead ensued, slowing the pace of reform and underlining questions many asked last year as to whether Abiy’s award had been premature.